US election: what will the maritime sector need from the Biden administration?

Ship Technology
by Adele Berti

As Joe Biden and Kamala Harris prepare to take over the White House after their success over Donald Trump in the US election, maritime stakeholders are waiting to find out what the ‘blue wave’ they promised during their campaign will mean for them.

Having suffered from limited activity due to the coronavirus pandemic – while remaining excluded from Trump’s transport bailout packages – the sector is hoping that the new administration will come to its rescue after months of struggle.

From regulation to shipbuilding and port development, Cozen O’Connor attorney Jeff Vogel believes that many areas are in dire need of intervention. Based in Washington, the Cozen O’Connor Maritime practice group has experience in maritime matters including tariffs, sanctions and embargo laws.

As the transition period between the two administrations kicks off, Vogel outlines the key segments of the US maritime industry that Biden should focus on during his mandate.

US-flag operators in the wake of Covid-19

In April President Trump chose to exclude the maritime industry from one of his coronavirus relief packages, leaving stakeholders empty handed and struggling for financial support. This was in contrast to the aviation industry which received significant funding.

According to Vogel, members of the sector will be expecting (and demanding) a change in this direction from the new administration, especially as the US prepares for a potential second wave of the pandemic and with seabourne traffic remaining below pre-Covid-19 levels. “The industry needs some further support and some form of relief to offset the economic impact that we’ve seen in 2020 as a result of the economic downturn and Covid-19,” he says. “The sector has been going along with reduced cargo demand and increased operational costs from the need to provide personal protective equipment to their crew members and just deal with a new operating environment.”

Work is already underway in the US Congress to secure additional funding for the sector under the lead of Peter DeFazio, who chairs the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Earlier in July he proposed implementing a Maritime Transportation System Emergency Relief Act, which will be discussed during a National Defence Authorization Act session scheduled to take place soon after the election.

Over the next four years, US-flagged preference cargo will also need renewed support, having seen a steady fall-off since the pandemic. Under the Cargo Preference Act of 1954, about 50% of Civilian Agencies cargo and Agricultural Cargo needs to be carried on US-flagged vessels, though Vogel suggests that changing the requirement to 100% could help revitalise the sector.

Increasing funding for the shipbuilding industry and sealift operations

The US shipbuilding sector has long been feeling the strain of the pandemic and enhanced competition from Asia, due to which Vogel says it will need “organic funding from the new government”.

In particular, the Trump administration has previously authorised funding for the National Security Multi Mission Vessels, a fleet of ships used for training purposes by state maritime academies and in cases of humanitarian disaster aid. “The industry needs further support in making much more significant investments into its infrastructure base, and also to training bases so that more grants are available for training,” he comments. “The US certainly needs to make more investment trying to build up that industry from the first pencil-touching-paper and design stages, all the way through the skilled labour that’s necessary to complete a shipbuilding project.”

Similar efforts will be required to bring the US’s current sealift fleet up to speed with new, younger vessels and more financial support. Owned by the Maritime Administration and the Military Sealift Command, these vessels are activated during disaster relief operations. “That fleet is made up of 46 vessels that at this point have gone well beyond their useful life,” he comments. “The average vessel age is over 50 years old and some are over 60 years old.”

These vessels are critical to national security and therefore will need modernisation and investment from the Biden administration. “But these efforts should have been started 20 years ago and the maritime labour is looking at this as a critical area,” he adds.

Continuing port development in key areas

Over the past four years the Trump administration has made significant contributions to local ports, recently agreeing to a series of port facilities and freight infrastructure grants to roll out in February and October 2020.

However, much like shipbuilding, the port sector is starting to face competition from US neighbouring states such as Canada and Mexico. “In recent years we’ve seen significant investment [for example] in Vancouver, which faced significant expansion and moved towards automation,” he mentions. “The same took place at a number of Mexican ports and the net result is that US ports are facing stiff competition with cargoes that are ultimately destined for the middle of the United States.”

This calls for increased infrastructure funding, training, research and development that will need to encompass both ports themselves and their supply chains. “There needs to be additional investment, not only in the ports but in the roads that connect to the ports and go all the way through the middle of America,” he continues. “All the infrastructure pieces that are necessary to get cargo flowing through our ports and to their ultimate destination.”

Clarifying the future of the Federal Maritime Commission

“What needs to be answered is the role of the Federal Maritime Commission in the future,” comments Vogel. Established in 1961 as an independent federal agency overlooking regulation of the US’s oceanbourne international transportation, the FMC could be subject to change under Biden’s presidency.

Having played an active role during the Trump administration, it could move from having three Republicans and two Democrats to the other way round. “The industry needs some clarity on what the role of the FMC,” he concludes. “Even though it is an independent agency and therefore isn’t subject to the same sort of changes that you see at other agencies, the change in administration [will probably lead to a change in the makeup of the Commission too.”

US election: how has Donald Trump impacted the maritime industry?

Ship Technology
by Adele Berti

The US is currently bracing for one of the most divisive presidential elections in its history, with Donald Trump and Joe Biden preparing to hit the polls on Tuesday.

As the pair approach the end of their race to the White House, maritime stakeholders have a tough decision to make ahead of them. The sector has seen a dramatic drop in traffic and economic activity since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and is in dire need of financial support and reforms.

According to Cozen O’Connor attorney Jeff Vogel, President Trump has implemented a “mixed bag” of positive and negative initiatives for US maritime since 2016, supporting development in some areas while significantly limiting others.

A Washington-based law firm specialised in maritime matters, the Cozen O’Connor Maritime practice group has been closely following the Trump administration’s work on the industry for the past four years. With just a few days left until the voting closes, Vogel comments on President Trump’s contributions to the sector during his current mandate.

Driving change in port development and shipbuilding

Under the work of Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, many US ports have benefitted from increased funding, courtesy of initiatives such as the Port Infrastructure Development Program. Established earlier this year, the scheme aims to support improvements to port facilities and freight infrastructure with grants rolled out in February and October 2020.

Recipients of the grants include some of the most high-profile hubs in the country, such as Anchorage in Alaska, Los Angeles in California and Cape Canaveral in Florida. “This infrastructure investment hasn’t been in the trillions of dollars as was indicated during [Trump’s] 2016 campaign but this has been a very successful programme by Secretary Chao,” comments Vogel.

Beyond port development, another area that saw increased funding during the current administration is the shipbuilding sector. Specifically, Vogel says, President Trump authorised funding of the National Security Multi Mission Vessels, a set of training vessels that will be used by state maritime academies and then can be deployed in humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations.

“That total contract has been awarded to Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia and is in the range of about $1.5bn,” he explains. “This represents significant investment in terms of the commercial side investment in shipbuilding.”

International profile: the heavy toll of the China trade war

From an international point of view, nothing has raised more eyebrows than the ongoing trade war between the US and China. The most significant trade-restricting measure in the world, this protectionist policy has been in place since March 2018 and looks likely to remain in place were Trump to succeed on Tuesday.

“[Recent terrorist attacks] have had an impact on the industry and we’ve certainly seen that in a number of sailing cancellations in the Pacific trade,” comments Vogel. “That has impacted both US-flagged and non-US flagged operations as China was a significant trade partner of the US. These tariffs, the chilling effect of ongoing negotiations and the continuing standoff between the White House and China have certainly impacted trade in the Pacific.”

Adding to these tensions is a recent fall-off in US-flagged preference cargoes. Under the Cargo Preference Act of 1954, about 50% of Civilian Agencies cargo and Agricultural Cargo needs to be carried on US-flagged vessels.

However, Vogel explains that a recent drop in the available cargo is having a negative ripple effect on the programmes that depend on it, such as the Food for Peace scheme. “This is where agencies like the US Agency for International Development purchase food commodities from US farmers and ship them overseas in support of humanitarian aid disaster relief operations,” he adds. “Those programmes are reviewed each year, and over time they have been zeroed out in the President’s programme.”

Despite recent attempts to restore funding for the programmes, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has diverted the focus away from them, putting more emphasis on national development projects.

The Jones Act and its role within offshore wind development

Having just marked 100 years since its establishment, the Jones Act is one of the most controversial laws in US maritime, one that the Trump administration has so far failed to take a stance on.

A section of the 1920 Merchant Marine Act, the Jones Act is one of the world’s strictest cabotage laws at it only allows US-flagged and built ships to move goods between national ports. It also states that vessels must be registered in the US with 75% of crew formed by US citizens.

“What we saw early on in the administration was mixed messages, though mainly leaning towards not supporting the Jones Act,” says Vogel. “There was a long period of conversations about providing a full waiver of the Jones Act for trade between the continental US and Puerto Rico, [as well as] waivers for liquefied natural gas (LNG) going into New England.”

But under pressures from industry stakeholders, these waivers never eventually came to fruition. “The net result is that there were a few limited waivers that were granted as responses to hurricanes that hit the US, [consistently] with what we’ve seen in past administrations,” he adds.

Despite failing to drive change in this field, the Trump administration still managed to indirectly affect some of the areas the Jones Act focuses on, such as offshore wind development.

“There are a number of questions regarding the application of the Jones Act to offshore wind development,” says Vogel. “The administration has not taken any steps to clarify those issues.”

However, this has not stopped companies like Danish power supplier Ørsted from continuing their wind development projects. “Things have not gone as quickly as stakeholders would have liked in large part because it’s not a policy priority of the current administration,” Vogel explains.

Reducing carbon emissions in maritime

The past few years have seen increasing pressures on the global maritime industry to reduce its carbon emissions, driven primarily by the International Maritime Organization. According to Vogel, this is an area where the US has achieved progress despite President Trump’s much-debated decision to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“[Withdrawing from] the Paris Accord speaks for itself as to the administration’s priorities for emission control but, notwithstanding that sort of policy change, a number of Jones Act operators have already made significant investments into cleaner forms of propulsion for their vessels,” he comments. “Operators such as Tote Maritime and Crowley Maritime that are operating in the Jacksonville to Puerto Rico trade route have made significant investments in dual-fuel vessels over the past seven/eight years.”

Many shipowners and operators are also investing in increasing their capacity for LNG-powered vessels running between Florida and Puerto Rico through private funding.

“Another area that we’ve seen move forward – despite not being a White House priority – is the control of invasive species through ballast control systems,” he concludes. These initiatives started before the current administration, though their successes have convinced the US Coast Guard and Environmental Protection Agency to approve new systems that are currently being implemented to reduce the environmental impact of ballast water discharge.

Get ready for blowout Q3 results in container shipping

American Shipper
by Greg Miller

Preliminary Matson numbers point to big gains for larger carriers

“We knew it was going to be good, but dadgum …,” exclaimed Stifel analyst Ben Nolan upon seeing the preliminary third-quarter 2020 results from Matson (NYSE: MATX).

Matson’s disclosures offer the first signals of how solid Q3 2020 earnings will be for container lines across the board. Container-line profits exceeded expectations in Q2 2020, a period when volumes were weak. In the third quarter, volumes and rates surged — and not just in the trans-Pacific trade.

“The stars are aligning for container shipping: historic consolidation, rational capacity management and now a fast bounce-back in demand post-lockdown,” wrote Jefferies analyst David Kerstens in report published this week.

Matson’s upside surprise

Matson is primarily in the Hawaii and Alaska Jones Act trades, but also runs China-U.S. services called CLX and CLX+. After market close on Thursday, Matson said it expected Q3 2020 earnings of $1.55-$1.60 per share, far exceeding the Wall Street consensus for 96 cents. Expected ocean transport operating income of $84.5 million-$86.5 million is double last year’s number.

Matson’s China volumes spiked 125% year-on-year, which the company attributed to a shift from air freight to premium ocean service, e-commerce demand and tight U.S. inventories.

“While rates may not be able to hold their current levels … volumes remain very high. Thus, we are expecting continued strength in the fourth quarter,” said Nolan.

Matson’s shares jumped 15% on Friday. The stock price has doubled since mid-May.

Exposure to trans-Pacific upside

Matson’s exposure to the trans-Pacific route was around 5,800 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) per week in Q3 2020. This pales in comparison to the larger carriers.

Alphaliner analyzed the top carriers’ capacity on the trans-Pacific route as of Sept. 30. It found that the COSCO Group ranked highest in terms of volume, with an average weekly capacity of 89,050 TEUs. The group includes COSCO Shipping and OOCL, both listed in Hong Kong.

France’s CMA CGM — which has publicly traded U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds — came in second, with 74,200 TEUs. Japan’s ONE took third with 61,200 TEUs. And Denmark-listed giant Maersk — which has American depository receipts trading in the U.S. (OTC: AMKBY) — had the fourth-highest exposure, 59,000 TEUs per week.

Interestingly, when looking at the top 10 carriers in terms of volume, Israel’s ZIM, the company that ranked 10th, had the highest exposure as a percentage of total deployments. It deploys 52% of its global fleet in the trans-Pacific.

ZIM is planning an IPO and is in the midst of buying back outstanding bond debt, according to Alphaliner. “ZIM may not find a better time in the cycle to attempt an IPO,” said Alphaliner, which noted that ZIM failed at three previous IPO attempts in 2008, 2011 and 2016, respectively.

Q3 customs data: bullish

Inbound volumes to the U.S. West Coast were exceptionally strong in the third quarter. According to investment bank Jefferies, the upside from a historic inventory restocking phase has just begun.

FreightWaves’ SONAR platform features data collected from U.S. Customs on the number of maritime import shipment customs filings per day (regardless of volume), calculated as a seven-day moving average.

The countrywide data (SONAR: CSTM.USA) shows the number of filings exceeded levels seen in the past two years for about two-thirds of Q3 2020. In contrast, the number of customs filings in Q2 2020 exceeded the prior two years’ levels for only about a quarter of that reporting period.

Q3 rate data: even more bullish

Asia-West Coast spot rates remain near record highs, despite the recent Golden Week holiday in China.

The Freightos Baltic Daily Index assessed Thursday’s rate from China to the West Coast (SONAR: FBXD.CNAW) at $3,841 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), very close to the high. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) puts this week’s Shanghai-Los Angeles rate at $3,848 per FEU, essentially flat week-on-week (down 0.3%).

SeaIntelligence Consulting CEO Lars Jensen pointed out in an online post that if one takes normal Golden Week seasonality into account, “the spot market actually strengthened slightly.”

Looking at the third-quarter rates as a whole, the data shows that spot China-West Coast rates were roughly double Q2 2020 levels and almost triple rates in Q3 2019. Furthermore, rate strength is not limited Asia-U.S. trade.

“The trans-Pacific is not the only trade that witnessed hefty rate increases,” said Alphaliner. “The evolution is even more spectacular between Shanghai and Santos [Brazil]. Unexpectedly high cargo demand has also pushed up spot rates on other North-South routes” including Shanghai to Durban, South Africa, and to Lagos, Nigeria, it added.

According to the SCFI, rates from Shanghai to Santos were $3,952 per TEU this week, seven times the rate in late August. Last week, Shanghai-Durban hit a record high of $1,737 per TEU and Shanghai-Lagos hit a record high of $3,293 per TEU.

History and Overview of U.S. Cabotage Laws

MarineLink
by Dennis L. Bryant – Bryant’s Maritime Consulting

The United States domestic maritime sector recently celebrated the 100th anniversary of the passage by Congress of the Jones Act. It is considered the most significant of various US cabotage laws. Few mariners though appreciate the long history of cabotage laws in this country.

Cabotage laws here are older than our nation. The British Navigation Acts and its predecessors were designed to develop, promote, and regulate British ships, shipping, trade, and commerce between other countries and with its colonies, including the restriction of foreign participation in its colonial trade. Later the goal of generating revenues from the colonies was added as a purpose of the Navigation Acts. This was done by prohibiting the colonies from exporting certain products to foreign nations and requiring the purchase of other products from Britain or British colonies. For example, molasses and later sugar could only be legally imported into the North American colonies from the British West Indies, even though these products could be purchased at a much lower price in the French West Indies. Such actions created dissention in the North American colonies, as well as increased smuggling, and were factors that led to the American Revolution.

Despite independence, the Navigation Acts found a permanent home in the new United States. The second law adopted by the First Congress imposed duties on numerous goods, wares, and merchandise imported into the new nation. The duty was lower if the imports were carried on vessels built in the United States and belonging to citizens thereof. The third law adopted imposed tonnage duties on ships in US waters, but again the duties were lower for vessels built in the United States and belonging to citizens thereof. The same Congress later adopted laws for registering vessels of the United States and for regulating the coastwise trade and for the government and regulation of seamen serving on vessels of the United States. Registered vessels were required to be wholly owned by citizens of the United States and the master was required to be a US citizen. The registry for vessels sold foreign was required to be surrendered. Another law imposed a significantly higher duty on foreign vessels trading between Customs districts than that imposed on vessels of the United States.

The Second Congress required ships of the United States to be commanded by US citizens. Foreign vessels captured in war and lawfully condemned as prize or adjudged to be forfeited for breach of laws of the United States and acquired wholly be US citizens were entitled to be registered as vessels of the United States. Another act provided for the enrollment of vessels of the United States and their entitlement to engage in the coasting trade or fisheries. Like registered vessels, enrolled vessels were required to be wholly owned by citizens of the United States and the master was required to be a US citizen. An enrolled vessel could not proceed on a foreign voyage until it had surrendered its enrollment and replaced it with a certificate of registry. Registered vessels could engage in the coasting trade, but if they carried goods, wares, or merchandise of foreign growth or manufacture, they were charged a higher duty.

In 1804, subsequent to the ratification of the Louisiana Purchase, foreign vessels coming up the Mississippi River were required to unlade in New Orleans. This effectively stopped all foreign vessels from operation on the Western Rivers upstream. In 1812, as an exception to prior law, steamboats owned wholly or in part by aliens resident in the United States were allowed to be enrolled and licensed, so long as they operated only in US bays and rivers and a bond of $1,000 was paid by the owner or owners. When the War of 1812 broke out, the duty on imported goods and merchandise was raised to 100%, with an addition 10% duty on goods and merchandise imported on foreign vessels. Also, the duty on foreign vessels calling in US ports was raised.

In 1813 a law was adopted, to enter into effect when war with the United Kingdom ended, making it unlawful to employ on any vessel of the United States persons other than citizens of the United States or persons of color or natives resident in the United States, except that masters in foreign ports were authorized to hire foreign seamen if there was a deficiency of US seamen in that port. This law, amended many times, remains in effect to date.

Commencing in 1817, the officers and at least three-fourths of the crews of vessels engaged in the fisheries were required to be citizens of the United States. The law also imposed a duty of fifty cents per ton for vessels of the United States, except for licensed vessels, engaged in transporting goods, wares, or merchandise from one state to a non-adjacent state. In 1819, the coasting trade law was amended to establish two ‘great districts’ – one on the east coast (and waters pertaining thereto) and the other on the south coast (and waters pertaining thereto). Vessels licensed for the coasting trade were allowed to so trade within their particular ‘great district’. Vessels could be separately licensed to trade between the ‘great districts’.

In 1825, enrollments and licenses for steamboats owned by incorporated companies was allowed for the first time. The enrollment or license was to be issued in the name of the president or secretary of the incorporated company. The president or secretary was required to swear or affirm that no part of the steamboat had been or was then owned by any foreigners.

In 1830, tonnage duties were abolished as regards vessels of the United States and vessels of foreign nations that likewise exempted US vessels. This remains the current US practice.

In 1848, yachts used exclusively for pleasure purposes were authorized to be enrolled as American vessels and could operate between ports of the United States without making entry.

In 1886, foreign vessels transporting passengers from one US port to another became subject to a fine of $2 per passenger so landed. In 1898, this act was amended to increase the fine to $200 per passenger. The 1898 statute also explicitly prohibited foreign vessels from transporting merchandise laden in one US port to another US port either directly or via a foreign port under penalty of forfeiture.

The Shipping Act of 1916 provided that no corporation, partnership, or association could be deemed a citizen of the United States unless the controlling interest therein is owned by citizens of the United States and, with respect to corporations, the president and managing directors are citizens of the United States and the corporation is organized under the laws of the United States or a state thereof. In 1918, this law was amended to provide that the controlling interest of a corporation shall not be deemed to be owned by citizens of the United States: (a) if the title to a majority of the stock thereof is not vested in ‘such citizens free from any trust or fiduciary obligation in favor of any person not a citizen of the United States ; or (b) if the majority of the voting power in such corporation is not vested in citizens of the United States; or (c) if through any contract or understanding it is so arranged that the majority of the voting power may be exercised, directly or indirectly, in behalf of any person who is not a citizen of the United States ; or (d) if by any other means whatsoever control of the corporation is conferred upon or permitted to be exercised by any person who is not a citizen of the United States.

The Merchant Marine Act, 1920 (popularly known as the Jones Act)

was adopted consolidating and updating many of the statutes mentioned above. The Jones Act has been revised numerous times, expanding the cabotage laws to apply to such activities as dredging, salvage, and towing. In 2006, the Act to complete the codification of Title 46, United States Code repealed the uncodified portions of Title 46, including the Jones Act and the other cabotage laws and consolidated them into the United States Code. Judges, maritime lawyers, and members of the maritime community continue to refer to the cabotage laws as the ‘Jones Act’.

In summary, cabotage laws have been part of the fabric of the United States from the beginning. Ironically, the British Navigation Acts, the progenitors of our cabotage laws, were repealed in 1849 under the influence of a free trade philosophy.

Under Mounting Pressure, Jones Act Lobby Claims the Law Is Cost‐​Free to Hawaii

Cato Institute
By Colin Grabow

Jones Act supporters in Hawaii can be forgiven for feeling a bit on edge these days. Last December Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii), citing the Jones Act’s impact on the state’s cost of living, introduced three bills aimed at reforming the law. A May poll of state residents, meanwhile, found that, among those familiar with the Jones Act, a stunning 85 percent thought it should be repealed or changed. And just last month the Honolulu-based Grassroot Institute of Hawaii released a study placing the Jones Act’s annual cost to the state at $1.2 billion.

Amidst this mounting pressure the American Maritime Partnership (AMP), a pro-Jones Act lobbying group, has attempted to change the narrative with a new study of its own. Its conclusion: the Jones Act has no effect on the state’s sky-high cost of living.

It’s a claim that should be greeted with considerable skepticism.

Passed in 1920, the Jones Act restricts the domestic waterborne transportation of goods to vessels that are U.S.-registered and U.S.-built as well as mostly U.S.-owned and crewed. That is to say, over 99 percent of the world’s ships are off-limits for domestic transport. And those that can be used cost far more to build—4-5 times as much as those built in other countries—and have significantly higher crewing costs.

This combination of expensive ships and crew, along with reduced competition, inevitably leads to higher transportation costs. That’s no small thing for one of the most geographically isolated parts of the United States that imports most of what it consumes.

But setting aside these theoretical considerations, the report suffers from methodological issues that bring its conclusions into question. Its claims are largely based on an online survey of 200 items at four big-box retailers—Costco, Home Depot, Target and Walmart—in both Los Angeles (where Jones Act ships bound for Hawaii depart from) and Honolulu (where these ships arrive). These items are then placed into four categories consisting of groceries, durable and household goods, clothing, and building materials. A fifth category—automobiles—is also used, with prices sourced from Kelly Blue Book.

The average price difference for each of the five categories is then averaged together to establish an overall difference of less than one percent that the report describes as “virtually nil.”

The flaws in this approach are numerous and glaring. These include:

Cherry-picking: Deciding which items to compare on price can yield dramatically different results. For example, when one searches for “ice cream” at one of Walmart ‘s Honolulu stores, the first three results cost more than a Walmart in Los Angeles to the tune of 19 percent, 13 percent, and 79 percent. Yet the lone ice cream example used in the AMP study from Walmart shows a price difference of 0 percent. So why was this item chosen and not the others? The report does not say.

Use of online pricing: Although the AMP report’s approach of comparing prices online is certainly easier than canvassing the actual stores, it is less accurate. For example, the report found that an 18oz box of Cheerios cost $3.64 in both Los Angeles and Hawaii. But when the Grassroot Institute paid a visit to a Walmart in Honolulu they found the price to be $4.26—an amount 17 percent higher. Similarly, Wesson canola oil was found by the report to be identically priced in Los Angeles and Hawaii at $6.98. But while in-store visits found the online price to be accurate for Los Angeles, in Honolulu it was actually $9.64—38 percent higher.

Statistical sleight-of-hand: Despite the lack of insight into how items were selected and the flawed use of online prices, the report still finds that grocery items in Honolulu cost 2.4 percent more than in Los Angeles. However, the report also found minimal cost differences across the four other categories. After averaging these five categories together the report finds a total cost difference of a mere 0.51 percent.

This approach makes little sense. Why should each category be equally weighted when Hawaii residents spend far more on some types of items than others? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 18.1 percent of expenditures by Honolulu consumers in 2017-18 was on food compared to a mere 2.7 percent on apparel and services. So why are grocery and clothing (or any other category for that matter) averaged together on an equal basis when one is far more consequential for consumers than the other?

Failure to isolate the dependent variable: Comparing items in Los Angeles and Hawaii is an interesting exercise, but it tells us little about the impact of Jones Act shipping on retail prices as a plethora of other factors figure here too. As the AMP study itself concedes, “there are many other factors that impact the price of goods in Hawaii beyond the Jones Act.” This is essentially an admission that price comparisons are a faulty means of gauging the Jones Act’s impact to consumers.

These are only some of the report’s more egregious flaws. In addition, it suffers from numerous other shortcomings that merit attention. Among them:

  • The report only examines prices at big-box retailers whose volume allows them to negotiate discounted rates with Jones Act shipping companies. There is little reason to think the impact of shipping on their prices should be seen as representative of other Hawaii retailers.
  • Citing a 2011 Maritime Administration (MARAD) report, the study states that, in the Jones Act’s absence, foreign ships engaged in domestic transport would have to comply with all U.S. work rules and manning requirements. This, in turn, would dramatically drive up their labor costs. In fact, the cited MARAD report makes no pronouncement about which U.S laws foreign ships may have to comply with if allowed to engage in domestic transport.
  • The study states that approximately 13,000 Hawaii residents are employed in the domestic maritime industry, with such jobs contributing to an overall economic impact of $3.3 billion to the Hawaii economy. The source for this claim is a study produced by a pro-Jones Act group that has never been made publicly available, and thus cannot be scrutinized.

The report’s most profound weakness, however, is a more subtle and less obvious one. Despite its title, “Impact of the U.S. Jones Act on Hawaii,” the report comes nowhere close to properly performing such an analysis.

A common misperception of the Jones Act is that its cost is the difference between freight rates offered by Jones Act ships and non-Jones Act ships. But this only scratches the surface. The actual cost of the Jones Act is the difference between what Hawaii (or the United States) looks like without the law compared to what it looks with it in place. It is in many ways a study in opportunity costs. This is something the AMP report entirely fails to wrestle with.

So what would Hawaii look like without the Jones Act? The following are some changes one might see:

  • Ranchers in the state could end their use of container ships (and even airplanes) to send cattle to the mainland, instead transporting them more efficiently with livestock carriers (a ship type not found in the Jones Act fleet) to boost their competitiveness. Other exporters in the state, such as the Kōloa Rum Company, could use capital freed up through reduced shipping expenses to expand their businesses.
  • Hawaii meets much of its energy needs from abroad rather than domestically to help avoid the high cost of Jones Act transport. But in the Jones Act’s absence, the door would be opened to purchasing a variety of energy sources from the U.S. mainland at even lower cost. Cheaper jet fuel, for example, would reduce the cost of visiting Hawaii and travel between its islands, providing a boon to tourism. Sourcing more crude oil from the U.S. mainland—instead of Pacific Rim producers including Russia, as well as from Africa and the Middle East—could also help lower the cost of locally refined products. Cheaper petroleum, relied upon for approximately 69 percent of Hawaii’s electricity generation, could help reduce electricity rates that are the country’s highest.
  • The United States is the world’s leading exporter of both sand and asphalt. Hawaii, however, purchases the former from Canada and the latter from China among other countries. In the case of asphalt, buying from the mainland is not even an option as the Jones Act fleet lacks dedicated asphalt/bitumen tankers to transport it. Access to cheaper U.S. sand and asphalt could lower the cost of construction and boost the quality of Hawaii’s infrastructure (the country’s second-worst according to one analysis).
  • An estimated 80 percent of Hawaii’s food imports come from the U.S. mainland, subjecting it to expensive Jones Act transportation. Removal of the Jones Act would lead to less expensive food, benefitting not only consumers but a restaurant industry that is responsible for 13 percent of state employment.

This is not a comprehensive list of the benefits that might be realized, but a mere sampling of the thinking one must engage in to properly understand the cost of the Jones Act. Unfortunately, such a line of inquiry is not found in the AMP report. And even its attempt to establish the Jones Act’s direct cost to consumers is fatally flawed due to numerous methodological errors. The report might provide new talking points for the Jones Act lobby, but it should not be regarded as a serious piece of economic analysis. For that, one must look elsewhere.

The Jones Act: A Burden America Can No Longer Bear

By Colin Grabow, Inu Manak, and Daniel J. Ikenson

How an archaic, burdensome law has been able to withstand scrutiny and persist for almost a century.

For nearly 100 years, a federal law known as the Jones Act has restricted water transportation of cargo between U.S. ports to ships that are U.S.-owned, U.S.-crewed, U.S.-registered, and U.S.-built. Justified on national security grounds as a means to bolster the U.S. maritime industry, the unsurprising result of this law has been to impose significant costs on the U.S. economy while providing few of the promised benefits.

This paper provides an overview of the Jones Act by examining its history and the various burdens it imposes on consumers and businesses alike. While the law’s most direct consequence is to raise transportation costs, which are passed down through supply chains and ultimately reflected in higher retail prices, it generates enormous collateral damage through excessive wear and tear on the country’s infrastructure, time wasted in traffic congestion, and the accumulated health and environmental toll caused by unnecessary carbon emissions and hazardous material spills from trucks and trains. Meanwhile, closer scrutiny finds the law’s national security justification to be unmoored from modern military and technological realities.

This paper examines how such an archaic, burdensome law has been able to withstand scrutiny and persist for almost a century. It turns out that, as in so many other cases of rent seeking, there is an asymmetry of motivations among those who benefit from the Jones Act’s protections and the vastly greater number who bear its costs. The protected domestic shipbuilding industry has a captive market from which it benefits handsomely and seeks to preserve by promoting fallacious arguments about the law’s necessity to national security, while the vast costs are dispersed across the economy in the form of higher prices, inefficiencies, and forgone opportunities that few people can even tie to the cause. That so many federal agencies and congressional committees have at least partial jurisdiction over different facets of the Jones Act also helps to explain its longevity. Lastly, this paper presents a series of options for reforming this archaic law and reducing its costly burdens.

Introduction
The Merchant Marine Act of 1920 has been a fixture of U.S. law and an imposition on the U.S. economy for almost 100 years. Better known as the “Jones Act,” the law was presented as a plan to ensure adequate domestic shipbuilding capacity and a ready supply of merchant mariners to be available in times of war or other national emergencies.1 The law aims to achieve those objectives by restricting domestic shipping services to vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, U.S.-flagged, and U.S.-staffed. A century of evidence supports the conclusion that the Jones Act has failed in its main objectives while imposing substantial economic costs.

As a result of these restrictions, the U.S. economy endures artificially inflated shipping costs because the transport of cargo between U.S. ports and within the country’s vast inland waterways is off‐​limits to foreign competition and domestic shipping firms must pay vastly higher prices for the ships they use. Although higher shipping rates are the most obvious cost of the Jones Act, they are merely the first in a cascade of adverse consequences unleashed by the law’s restrictions.

Higher prices for waterborne transportation drive down demand for shipping services. When businesses move less cargo by water, shipping companies purchase fewer vessels. Reduced demand means that producers build fewer ships and, accordingly, there are fewer employment opportunities for merchant mariners. Meanwhile, artificially inflated waterborne shipping rates increase demand for alternative forms of transportation, including trucking, rail, and pipeline services, raising those modes’ rates and inflating business costs throughout the supply chain. Transportation expenses — incurred to move raw materials and intermediate goods to the next stage in the production process and final product to retailers and end users — comprise a significant portion of the cost of goods sold. Elevated transportation costs affect nearly every business in nearly every industry, rippling through supply chains, squeezing profits, curtailing business investment, disadvantaging U.S. companies relative to their foreign competitors, and depriving U.S. households of savings to spend elsewhere in the economy or to invest.

Meanwhile, heightened reliance on trucks and freight trains not only increases infrastructure and maintenance costs from wear and tear on roads, bridges, and rail, but also generates greater environmental costs. Surface transportation produces more carbon emissions than ships do, and its more intensive use increases the likelihood of highway accidents and train derailments involving hazardous materials. Relatedly, time wasted in growing traffic congestion — especially on highways running parallel to U.S. sea lanes — generates enormous opportunity costs from lost wages and lost output. Significant opportunity costs also can be observed in the loss of revenues experienced when, for example, a hog farmer in North Carolina purchases corn feed from Canada instead of from a farmer in Iowa because exorbitant delivery costs make the latter’s price uncompetitive. But even though some foreign suppliers benefit by happenstance in this manner, the Jones Act has been a persistent irritant to some of our most important trade partners, serving to prevent better access for U.S. exporters in their markets.

Despite these considerable costs and the absence of any measurable benefits, the Jones Act has persisted for nearly 100 years. Why? The answer is complex, but it boils down to the same causes that explain the persistence of rent‐​seeking behavior more generally. The small number of beneficiaries, which primarily include domestic shipyards and some labor unions, are more powerfully motivated to preserve the status quo than are the far more numerous adversely affected interests in seeking its repeal.