Study Links Rise in Rain and Snow to Human Actions

An increase in heavy precipitation that has afflicted many countries is at least partly a consequence of human influence on the atmosphere, climate scientists reported in a new study.

In the first major paper of its kind, the researchers used elaborate computer programs that simulate the climate to analyze whether the rise in severe rainstorms, heavy snowfalls and similar events could be explained by natural variability in the atmosphere. They found that it could not, and that the increase made sense only when the computers factored in the effects of greenhouse gases released by human activities like the burning of fossil fuels.

As reflected in previous studies, the likelihood of extreme precipitation on any given day rose by about 7 percent over the last half of the 20th century, at least for the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for which sufficient figures are available to do an analysis.

The principal finding of the new study is “that this 7 percent is well outside the bounds of natural variability,” said Francis W. Zwiers, a Canadian climate scientist who took part in the research.

U.N. warns China drought could pressure wheat prices

A record drought in China’s major wheat producing areas threatens to push world food prices beyond their current high level, the United Nations warned in a report Tuesday, adding to growing concern about how the rising cost of food is affecting the poor around the globe.

China, the world’s largest wheat producer, consumes almost all of what it grows and keeps roughly 55 million tons in reserve. But the prospect of a failed winter wheat crop might prompt the country to import grain on a scale that could put further stress on world prices, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned.

The FAO’s world food price index, a composite indicator of the cost of a basket of goods, is at its highest level since it was introduced in 1990. Wheat prices have roughly doubled since mid-2010, according to International Monetary Fund data.

Rainfall has been more than 30 percent below normal since October across five northern provinces that account for about two-thirds of Chinese wheat production, the FAO reported. Shandong province, China’s second-largest wheat-growing area, has had less than half an inch of rain since September and is heading for its worst drought in 200 years, according to reports from China’s official news agency.

Recent rainfall eases drought

Downpours have ended drought conditions on Oahu and Kauai, but the suffering continues for farmers and ranchers on other islands

Oahu and Kauai are no longer officially in drought conditions after last month’s heavy rain, the National Weather Service said.

But farmers and ranchers are still suffering, especially those on Maui, Molokai and the Big Island, where some ranchers are reportedly still hauling water to support their livestock.

National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama said “conditions on the leeward side of the Big Island, which is a dry area normally, improved slightly.”

However, last month’s rainfall “was not enough since it occurred over a short period of time,” too short to eliminate the drought conditions there.

The report issued by the Weather Service is just one of several steps that must be met before the emergency drought declaration issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture is lifted. The emergency declaration, which made farmers and ranchers eligible for emergency loans and other payments, was issued for the Big Island in 2006, Maui and Molokai in 2007 and Kauai and Oahu last January.

“It’s good news,” said Diane Ley, state executive director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency.

However, it will be several years before the state’s pasture lands recover from the past four years of drought conditions.

Sweet Smell of Success

The rain came down. The price went up, and Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Co. finished the year with a much improved crop.

The final raw sugar shipment was loaded at Kahului Harbor’s Pier One on Wednesday and Thursday.

The harvest was just shy of 172,000 tons, much better than the 127,000 tons in 2009, but well short of the 200,000 tons the plantation can make in a good year.

In a telephone interview from New York on Thursday, HC&S General Manager Chris Benjamin said that although there is still “a ways to go,” the improved crop and better world prices take the immediate pressure off the plantation.

A year ago, after experiencing heavy losses attributed to a long drought, the directors of Alexander & Baldwin took a hard look at HC&S. The 37,000-acre plantation was the origin of the A&B conglomerate, but today it accounts for only about 7 percent of revenues.

The board approved continuation of the business only until the end of this year, pending improved results.

Financial results won’t be published until next year, but Benjamin said he believes that the board is already satisfied that the operation is on the right track.

At this week’s price of nearly 40 cents per pound of raw sugar (in New York), the crop would be worth more than $130 million, not counting molasses and electricity byproduct revenue, plus the premium for the part of the crop sold as specialty sugars.

An Almanac of Extreme Weather

THE news from this Midwestern farm is not good. The past four years of heavy rains and flash flooding here in southern Minnesota have left me worried about the future of agriculture in America’s grain belt. For some time computer models of climate change have been predicting just these kinds of weather patterns, but seeing them unfold on our farm has been harrowing nonetheless.

My family and I produce vegetables, hay and grain on 250 acres in one of the richest agricultural areas in the world. While our farm is not large by modern standards, its roots are deep in this region; my great-grandfather homesteaded about 80 miles from here in the late 1800s.

He passed on a keen sensitivity to climate. His memoirs, self-published in the wake of the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, describe tornadoes, droughts and other extreme weather. But even he would be surprised by the erratic weather we have experienced in the last decade.

In August 2007, a series of storms produced a breathtaking 23 inches of rain in 36 hours. The flooding that followed essentially erased our farm from the map.

Rain does little to ease drought

The statewide drought appears to be easing as cooler La Nina conditions bring more rain to Hawaii, according to the National Weather Service.

But farmers and ranchers said a protracted amount of rain is needed before they can recover from several years of extremely dry conditions.

Some areas, such as southwestern Kauai and leeward sections of the Big Island and Maui, did not receive significant rainfall in October, continuing extreme drought conditions, National Weather Service officials said Friday.

Late Thursday, thunderstorms along with lightning passed by Hawaii, and most of the anticipated heavy rainfall missed the islands.

The weather service reported 0.15 inches of rain Thursday at Honolulu Airport and 0.6 inches at Lihue Airport but none for airports in Hilo and Kahului.

In October, while many places reported less than normal rainfall, some areas exceeded their normal monthly average, including Haiku on Maui with 5.71 inches — 12 percent above normal — and Honaunau on the Big Island with 5.54 inches of rain, 7 percent above normal.

Parker Ranch seeing green profitable

Profits rise despite drought, economy After a rough 2008, much ground regained Wise investments offset losses
After two years of multimillion dollar losses, Parker Ranch Foundation Trust made money last year and now wants to raise more by hosting special events at its Waimea rodeo arena.

Revenues and net assets were up in 2009, while operating costs were reduced by the trust, which owns Parker Ranch, one of the nation’s oldest and largest cattle ranches.

However, cattle sales remained in the red, while several other income sources were down in 2009 compared with the prior year, according to the trust’s recently released 2009 annual report.

“Global events have continued to raise uncertainty about the economic outlook, and the drought in West Hawaii has exacerbated the local challenges for the Big Island ranching community,” the five trustees wrote in the document. “Nonetheless, Parker Ranch Foundation Trust has accomplished a great deal during the last year.”

Chief among them was going from an $18 million operating loss in 2008 to a $5.1 million profit last year. That financial turnaround helped boost total assets to $283.8 million by year’s end, up $5 million from the close of 2008.

Sugar rush – Restating the Obvious by Harry Eagar – Mauinews.com

Funny how things work out. Our new mayor wants to take over plantation water systems (although when he had a chance four years ago, he backed down).

A couple of years ago, a combination of drought and low prices had HC&S on the ropes, and the board at A&B was beginning to wonder whether sugar was a business they wanted to be in. At best, it accounts for only about 7% of revenue. HC&S is such a small part of A&B that it cannot ever contribute largely to profits, although it can — and recently has — hammered them down.

Since A&B answers to Wall Street, which does not give a damn about Upcountry water meters, low sugar prices open the way to a county takeover of EMI. This would be a disaster, but, like I say, funny how things work out.

Arakawa’s in, sugar prices are up, A&B will presumably stick with HC&S for a while longer, the valley will be green and Kihei will not have to live through endless dust storms.

Killer of Aspen Slows, but Worries About a Beloved Tree Remain – NYTimes.com

GUNNISON, Colo. — Aspen trees, with their quivering, delicate foliage and the warm glow of color they spread across the high country of the Rocky Mountains this time of year, have an emotional appeal that their stolid, prickly evergreen cousins do not.

So tree lovers and scientists alike felt the impact when the aspen in the West started dying around 2004 — withering away in a broad band from here in southwest Colorado through the mountains of Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico and into Wyoming.

“There’s definitely something powerful about these trees,” said James Worrall, a forest pathologist for the United States Forest Service, gazing at a brilliant yellow swath of healthy aspen in a stand in the mountains here, about four hours southeast of Denver.

“It’s partly, I think, an emotional impression,” he said. “Partly a very real impression that the aspen is very important in our forests — hydrologically, biologically, to wildlife, every kind of way you can imagine.”

The good news is that the phenomenon known as sudden aspen decline, or SAD, appears to have stabilized, Dr. Worrall and other researchers say. Individual trees are still dying, since the process can take years to unfold, but many stands of trees are holding their ground against any new onset.