CQ Politics | Gubernatorial Outlook in the Net-Zero Remap States: Part II

This is final segment of our series on this year’s gubernatorial races and how they will affect congressional redistricting, which will take place after the this year’s census is completed. With a focus on seats up in 2010 now held by Republicans in states that are projected to keep the same number of House seats following reapportionment, we hope this will be a little light reading for your holiday weekend.

Light, at least, compared to the previous segment on the races for Democratic-held seats in the “net-zero” reapportionment states. There were 16 of those, and only 11 states in the GOP column that are detailed in the roundup below.

Last week, we looked at the redistricting implications of gubernatorial races in states that are projected by political data analysis firm Election Data Services (EDS) – based on July 2009 Census Bureau population estimates – to either gain seats or lose seats in reapportionment. All told, we have looked at all 43 states that are projected to have more than one district and therefore must gear up for redistricting.

The remaining seven states, the nation’s least populous, have the minimum of one at-large House seat guaranteed to each state in the Constitution. There are races for governor in four of those states: Alaska, where Republican incumbent Sean Parnell is running; South Dakota, where Republican Gov. Michael Rounds cannot run because of term limits; Vermont, where Republican Gov. Jim Douglas is retiring; and Wyoming, where Democratic incumbent Dave Freudenthal is term limited. Current incumbents in Delaware (Democrat Jack Markell ), Montana (Democrat Brian Schweitzer ) and North Dakota (Republican John Hoeven , who is running this year for Senate) were elected in 2008 and their seats are not up for election until 2012.

Republican “Net-Zero” States

Hawaii: Hawaii is one of a handful of states in which a bipartisan commission performs congressional redistricting. So this year’s contest to succeed term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle (R) will have no remap impact. It is, nonetheless, an interesting race. Democrats, who have generally dominated politics in Hawaii since it became a state in 1959, will be trying to reclaim the governor’s office won in 2002 and 2006 by the moderate Lingle, and will decide between two longtime political arch rivals in the Sept. 18 primary, former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (who in February resigned his seat to run) and Honolulu Mayor [@url@Mufi Hannemann@http://www.mufihannemann.com/@. Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, who is trying to prove Lingle’s wins were no fluke, is expected to easily outrun his less-known primary opponents.