Hawaii Weekly Crop Weather Report

Here is the PDF file for the *Hawaii Crop Weather* (crop progress and condition) Report for the week ending *September 23, 2007*.

current_hi092307.pdf

Please visit the website for more information: http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/

USDA NASS Hawaii Field Office
1421 South King Street
Honolulu, HI 96814-2512
1-800- 804-9514

Agricultural Highlights

Fruits

Bananas
Orchards in eastern sections of the Big Island were in generally good condition. Favorable showers provided good moisture. Spraying and leaf trimming helped to minimize Black Leaf Streak disease incidences. Bunchy Top incidences remained localized in the Puna and Kona districts. Oahu orchards were in fair to good condition. Leeward and central Oahu fields were in good condition with heavy to moderate supplies for the market. Heavy irrigation continued as the fields remained dry. Windward fields were in fair to good condition with light to moderate supplies. Overall harvesting on Oahu was expected to be at moderate to heavy levels as the shorter day length and slightly cooler temperatures have slowed ripening. Kauai?s orchards were in fair to good condition. Spraying for insect infestation was on a regular schedule.

Papayas
Orchards in the lower Puna area of Hawaii County were in good to fair condition. Ample soil moisture and sunny periods helped to boost flowering and fruit development. Field activities such as spraying for disease control and fertilizing were active. Young and new orchards made steady progress. On Oahu, some orchards were re-worked for future harvest after being damaged by a wildfire. In other areas, fruit development and ripening were fair to good with the high temperatures slowing crop progress. Ring spot virus and wild pig damage in some fields lowered yields. Orchards on Kauai continued to make good to fair progress during the week. Pickings were at moderate levels from several fields in harvest with some new fields in active harvest boosting available supplies.

Vegetables

Head Cabbage
The Big Island?s Waimea crop made good progress with heavy irrigation. Young plantings made steady growth. Light production was expected from Volcano fields. Supplies were mainly for the local markets. On Maui, insect pressure in most of the major growing areas has decreased and damage also declined. Weather conditions have cooled and producers noted that this was beneficial for the crop. Relief from the hot daytime temperatures and the cool evening temperatures allowed some improvement in the quality of the crop. Growth and development was steady, but may soon begin to show signs of slowing down as day length begins to shorten. Planting has been steady and production was expected to stay at current levels. The head cabbage crop was in fair to good condition.

Sweet corn
Windward and central Oahu fields continued to make good progress with the sunny, dry weather and heavy irrigation. Areas affected by water use restrictions have cut back on planting activities and have experienced decreased yields. The Big Island?s young corn crop continued to make good progress. Harvesting was active and supplies were for local sales.

Other Crops

Coffee
On Kauai, orchards were in good condition with active harvesting anticipated to continue. Sunny days and moderate trade winds kept fields in good condition for harvesting. Rainfall has been light and reservoir levels continued to decrease causing some concern.

Ginger root
The Big Island?s crop made good growth during the week. Very damp conditions, however, slowed fieldwork.

Persimmon
Maui?s persimmon crop was in good condition. There were some reports of deer entering the field, but so far damage has been minimal. Insect pressure has also been minimal. At the current rate of development, the crop is expected to reach maturity in October with harvesting to begin shortly there after.

HAWAII FRUITS ANNUAL SUMMARY

Here is the PDF file for the HAWAII FRUITS ANNUAL SUMMARY Report.

fruit102007.pdf

Please visit the website for more information: http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/

————————————————————-
Contact Information:
Mark E. Hudson, Director
USDA NASS Hawaii Field Office
1421 South King Street
Honolulu, HI 96814-2512

Office: (808) 973-9588 / (800) 804-9514
Fax: (808) 973-2909
————————————————————-

2006 HAWAII FRUIT OUTPUT AND VALUE DECLINE

Hawaii fruit growers harvested 435.2 million pounds of fruit for fresh and processed utilization in 2006, an 11 percent decline from the previous year, according to the USDA, NASS, Hawaii Field Office. Total value fell 3 percent to $101.7 million, with guava, lemon, papaya, pineapple, and the tropical specialty group recording declines in value of sales. Fruit acreage totaled 19,740 acres, a 2 percent decrease from 2005. Harvested area decreased 6 percent to 4,090 acres. Almost continuous rainfall from late February through March contributed to losses in some crops due to soil erosion, flooding, disease outbreaks, and fruit and tree losses. The lengthy rainy period slowed fruit maturation in some crops.

Pineapple, still Hawaii?s largest fruit commodity, represented 70 percent of total fruit acreage and 74 percent of the total fruit value. Total utilized pineapple production fell 11 percent to 376 million pounds. Since records were kept by the Hawaii Field Office, 2006 was the first year fresh market utilization outweighed processed utilization. Also establishing a record was the average farm price. In late 2006, operations ended prematurely for one major company which had previously announced their phase-out of pineapple production.

The state?s papaya producers devoted 2,095 acres toward papaya production, a decrease of 13 percent from the previous year. Harvested area totaled 1,530 acres, 3 percent more than 2005. Papaya output declined 13 percent to 28.7 million pounds while value of sales dropped 2 percent to $11.0 million.

Total banana acreage rose 5 percent in 2006 while harvested acreage increased 2 percent to 1,000 acres. Utilized production was pegged at 20.0 million pounds, 4 percent less than 2005. However, higher average prices helped push total value of sales to $9.8 million, 7 percent higher than the previous year.

Total guava production area declined 14 percent to 575 acres in 2006 while area harvested declined 41 percent to 365 acres. Value of sales declined 7 percent to $1.1 million. Hawaii?s guavas, which are mainly for the processed market, recorded a 2 percent increase in price. However, this was not enough to offset the 9 percent lower output.

Area devoted to tropical specialty fruit totaled 1,240 acres in 2006, 2 percent less than 2005. Area harvested totaled 690 acres, 5 percent lower than the previous year. Hawaii?s growers of tropical specialty fruit produced and sold an estimated 1.45 million pounds of fruit in 2006, relatively unchanged from 2005. Compared with 2005, higher output was registered for longan, lychee, mango, and persimmon. Value of sales was pegged at $2.6 million in 2006, 4 percent lower than 2005.

Hawaii Papayas Report

Here is the PDF file for the Hawaii Papayas Report.

papaya100107.pdf

Please visit the website for more information: http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/

————————————————————-
Contact Information:
Mark E. Hudson, Director
USDA NASS Hawaii Field Office
1421 South King Street
Honolulu, HI 96814-2512

Office: (808) 973-9588 / (800) 804-9514
Fax: (808) 973-2909
————————————————————-

HAWAII PAPAYAS” reports are available on our website and also PRINTED monthly. Subscriptions for PRINTED copies are free to those persons who report agricultural data to NASS (upon request) and available for $4 per year to all others.

AUGUST FRESH PAPAYA HIGHER

Hawaii fresh papaya utilization is estimated at 2.4 million pounds for August 2007, up 1 percent from July 2007 and 9 percent higher than August 2006. Year-to-date sales totaled 17.8 million pounds, 5 percent above the comparable period last year.

August weather was mainly sunny with occasional showers benefiting orchard growth and development. Irrigation was stepped up to replenish soil moisture levels. Spraying to control insects and diseases was ongoing. In preparation of Hurricane Flosse?s strong winds, growers trimmed leaves from mature trees to prevent uprooting. Fortunately, it was downgraded to a tropical storm and passed with no damage to orchards. Newly planted acreage made favorable progress. Maturing fields were in the flowering and fruiting stages.

Papaya growers are expected to receive an estimated 40.0 cents per pound for fresh fruit in August, 15 percent (7.0 cents) less than July 2007 and 17 percent (8.1 cents) below August a year ago.

Papaya Acreage Survey 2007 Results

In August 2007, there were 125 farms reported on Hawaii County, unchanged from August 2006. The county still accounts for the majority of the State?s total papaya acreage and bearing acreage. Honolulu/Kauai/Maui County reported 53 growers compared to 45 growers a year ago.

Some growers commented on the challenges of growing papayas with continuous dry weather and the lack of natural rainfall, fire damage, and problems with insects, diseases, and wild pigs. Others had marketing and economic issues with low prices and the increasing cost of returns to maintain healthy papaya orchards. These concerns were influencing their decisions on whether to continue growing papayas. Some orchards reported doing well with no major incidences.

State 2007 Variety Summary

In August 2000, Rainbow and Kapoho ranked as the top two varieties Statewide with 42 and 37 percent, respectively. Over the years, a higher percentage of Rainbow has been planted. In August 2007, Rainbow and Kapoho accounted for 68 and 17 percent, respectively. Sunrise variety represented 8 percent of the acreage grown followed by ?Other? varieties making up 7 percent.

In August 2007, Rainbow represented 62 percent of the bearing acreage Statewide compared to 57 percent in August 2006. Kapoho comprised of 22 percent of the bearing acreage compared to 27 percent a year ago. Sunrise and ?Other? varieties contributed 8 percent each to the bearing acreage.

In August 2000, Hawaii County had 2,050 acres planted in papayas, Kapoho (49 percent), Rainbow (45 percent), and ?Other? varieties (6 percent). Annual survey indications show there has been a trend in growing more Rainbow. In August 2007, Rainbow acreage distribution accounted for 75 percent, Kapoho 19 percent, and ?Other? varieties 6 percent.

Hawaii Flowers & Nursery Products

Here is the PDF file for the Hawaii Flowers & Nursery Products report.

flower091307.pdf

Please visit the website for more information: http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/

————————————————————-
Contact Information:
Mark E. Hudson, Director
USDA NASS Hawaii Field Office
1421 South King Street
Honolulu, HI 96814-2512

Office: (808) 973-9588 / (800) 804-9514
Fax: (808) 973-2909
————————————————————-

HAWAII FLOWERS & NURSERY PRODUCTS” reports are available on our website and also PRINTED annually. Subscriptions for PRINTED copies are free to those persons who report agricultural data to NASS (upon request) and available for $2 per year to all others.

HAWAII FLOWERS & NURSERY PRODUCTS Annual Summary
Release: September 10, 2007

2006 FLORICULTURE AND NURSERY PRODUCTS NEAR RECORD

Hawaii?s floriculture and nursery products is estimated at $100.7 million for 2006. This is near the previous year?s record high and continues as the top contributor to diversified agriculture according to the USDA, NASS, Hawaii Field Office. Some commodity groups experienced increases while others had decreases in 2006. Cut flowers totaled $14.1 million, up 1 percent. Cut and potted orchids were valued at $22.2 million, nearly unchanged from last year. Lei flowers pegged at $3.5 million was 6 percent lower. Foliage sales were 7 percent less, registering at $18.1 million. Potted flowering plants were 1 percent above 2005 and valued at $6.4 million. Landscape plants were estimated at $20.9 million, almost unchanged from last year. Plant rentals increased 4 percent and totaled $5.1 million. Other nursery products jumped 14 percent, registering $5.8 million. Bedding and garden plants wholesale value, at $3.3 million, was 11 percent higher than 2005.

STATE SUMMARY

COUNTY RANKINGS:
Hawaii County, with $51.9 million in sales, ranked number one in 2006. Honolulu farmers registered sales at $33.5 million, 3 percent more than 2005. Maui County sales totaled $12.3 million, 3 percent above last year. Kauai sales, pegged at $2.9 million, were 8 percent below 2005.

COUNTY SUMMARIES

HAWAII COUNTY LEADS IN SALES
Hawaii County growers of flowers and nursery products accounted for 52 percent of the State?s total wholesale value of flowers and nursery products in 2006. Hawaii County?s 410 growers rang up sales of $51.9 million, 3 percent less than the $53.4 million in 2005. Honolulu?s 250 producers accounted for 33 percent of the State?s total wholesale value of flowers and nursery products. Honolulu farmers reported sales of $33.5 million, 3 percent above 2005. Maui County?s 195 producers generated $12.3 million in sales, 3 percent more than a year ago. Kauai?s 75 producers registered $2.9 million in sales, 8 percent less than 2005.

OUT-OF-STATE SALES

OUT-OF-STATE SALES TOTALED $49.0 MILLION

The value of out-of-State sales of flowers and nursery products (including wholesale and retail sales) during 2006 was estimated at $49.0 million. Values in this table are not comparable to values shown in the majority of other tables throughout this release. The value of out-of-State sales represents the dollar received at the point the commodity leaves the State. Thus, the product contains retail and wholesale sales and may include multiple transactions by the time it leaves the State.

Potted foliage, valued at $11.6 million, remained the number one floriculture and nursery product exported. Other potted orchids followed second with $9.3 million in value. Cut anthurium exports contributed $7.1 million, up 14 percent from 2005. Potted dendrobium orchids ranked fourth in out-of-State sales with $3.8 million, declining 13 percent from 2005.

DENDROBIUM ORCHID SALES DOWN 10 PERCENT
In 2006, dendrobium orchid sales were valued at $8.8 million, 10 percent lower than 2005. Potted in bud/bloom contributed $5.7 million, declining 3 percent from last year. Cut sprays registered $2.5 million in sales, down 19 percent from the previous year. Sales of individual blossoms fell 10 percent to $532,000.

DENDROBIUM PRODUCTION AREA 9 PERCENT LOWER
The combined production area for dendrobium cut sprays and in bud/bloom pots totaled 5.2 million square feet, 9 percent lower than 2005. Production area reported by growers includes newly planted, as well as established acreage; thus, year-to-year yield comparisons calculated using area and sales may be misleading.

Area utilized for cut sprays totaled 2.8 million square feet, 16 percent below 2005. Production area for potted in bud/bloom totaled 2.4 million square feet, increasing 2 percent from the previous year.

Hawaii Flowers & Nursery Products

Here is the PDF file for the Hawaii Flowers & Nursery Products report.

flower091307.pdf

Please visit the website for more information: http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/

————————————————————-
Contact Information:
Mark E. Hudson, Director
USDA NASS Hawaii Field Office
1421 South King Street
Honolulu, HI 96814-2512

Office: (808) 973-9588 / (800) 804-9514
Fax: (808) 973-2909
————————————————————-

HAWAII FLOWERS & NURSERY PRODUCTS” reports are available on our website and also PRINTED annually. Subscriptions for PRINTED copies are free to those persons who report agricultural data to NASS (upon request) and available for $2 per year to all others.

HAWAII FLOWERS & NURSERY PRODUCTS Annual Summary
Release: September 10, 2007

2006 FLORICULTURE AND NURSERY PRODUCTS NEAR RECORD

Hawaii?s floriculture and nursery products is estimated at $100.7 million for 2006. This is near the previous year?s record high and continues as the top contributor to diversified agriculture according to the USDA, NASS, Hawaii Field Office. Some commodity groups experienced increases while others had decreases in 2006. Cut flowers totaled $14.1 million, up 1 percent. Cut and potted orchids were valued at $22.2 million, nearly unchanged from last year. Lei flowers pegged at $3.5 million was 6 percent lower. Foliage sales were 7 percent less, registering at $18.1 million. Potted flowering plants were 1 percent above 2005 and valued at $6.4 million. Landscape plants were estimated at $20.9 million, almost unchanged from last year. Plant rentals increased 4 percent and totaled $5.1 million. Other nursery products jumped 14 percent, registering $5.8 million. Bedding and garden plants wholesale value, at $3.3 million, was 11 percent higher than 2005.

STATE SUMMARY

COUNTY RANKINGS:
Hawaii County, with $51.9 million in sales, ranked number one in 2006. Honolulu farmers registered sales at $33.5 million, 3 percent more than 2005. Maui County sales totaled $12.3 million, 3 percent above last year. Kauai sales, pegged at $2.9 million, were 8 percent below 2005.

COUNTY SUMMARIES

HAWAII COUNTY LEADS IN SALES
Hawaii County growers of flowers and nursery products accounted for 52 percent of the State?s total wholesale value of flowers and nursery products in 2006. Hawaii County?s 410 growers rang up sales of $51.9 million, 3 percent less than the $53.4 million in 2005. Honolulu?s 250 producers accounted for 33 percent of the State?s total wholesale value of flowers and nursery products. Honolulu farmers reported sales of $33.5 million, 3 percent above 2005. Maui County?s 195 producers generated $12.3 million in sales, 3 percent more than a year ago. Kauai?s 75 producers registered $2.9 million in sales, 8 percent less than 2005.

OUT-OF-STATE SALES

OUT-OF-STATE SALES TOTALED $49.0 MILLION

The value of out-of-State sales of flowers and nursery products (including wholesale and retail sales) during 2006 was estimated at $49.0 million. Values in this table are not comparable to values shown in the majority of other tables throughout this release. The value of out-of-State sales represents the dollar received at the point the commodity leaves the State. Thus, the product contains retail and wholesale sales and may include multiple transactions by the time it leaves the State.

Potted foliage, valued at $11.6 million, remained the number one floriculture and nursery product exported. Other potted orchids followed second with $9.3 million in value. Cut anthurium exports contributed $7.1 million, up 14 percent from 2005. Potted dendrobium orchids ranked fourth in out-of-State sales with $3.8 million, declining 13 percent from 2005.

DENDROBIUM ORCHID SALES DOWN 10 PERCENT
In 2006, dendrobium orchid sales were valued at $8.8 million, 10 percent lower than 2005. Potted in bud/bloom contributed $5.7 million, declining 3 percent from last year. Cut sprays registered $2.5 million in sales, down 19 percent from the previous year. Sales of individual blossoms fell 10 percent to $532,000.

DENDROBIUM PRODUCTION AREA 9 PERCENT LOWER
The combined production area for dendrobium cut sprays and in bud/bloom pots totaled 5.2 million square feet, 9 percent lower than 2005. Production area reported by growers includes newly planted, as well as established acreage; thus, year-to-year yield comparisons calculated using area and sales may be misleading.

Area utilized for cut sprays totaled 2.8 million square feet, 16 percent below 2005. Production area for potted in bud/bloom totaled 2.4 million square feet, increasing 2 percent from the previous year.

HAWAII MONTHLY LIVESTOCK REVIEW

Here is the PDF file for the Hawaii Monthly Livestock Review Report.

lvstk091307.pdf

Please visit the website for more information: http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/

————————————————————-
Contact Information:
Mark E. Hudson, Director
USDA NASS Hawaii Field Office
1421 South King Street
Honolulu, HI 96814-2512

Office: (808) 973-9588 / (800) 804-9514
Fax: (808) 973-2909
————————————————————-

HAWAII MONTHLY LIVESTOCK REVIEW” reports are available on our website and also PRINTED monthly. Subscriptions for PRINTED copies are free to those persons who report agricultural data to NASS (upon request) and available for $4 per year to all others.

Hawaii Monthly Livestock Review

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September 13, 2007

In Cooperation with the Hawaii Department of Agriculture
Hawaii Field Office ? 1428 South King Street ? Honolulu, HI 96814-2512 ? 1-(800)-804-9514 ? www.nass.usda.gov

July Egg Production Down 19 Percent From A Year Ago
Hawaii egg production totaled 7.0 million (19,444 cases) in July 2007, down 19 percent from July 2006. The average number of layers on hand during July 2007 was estimated at 369,000, up fractionally from June 2007 and down 16 percent from July 2006. The average rate of lay during July 2007 was 1,897 per 100 layers (61.2 percent rate of lay), down 3 percent from July 2006.

Total Cattle Marketings and Exports

Cattle Marketings Up 31 Percent From 2006
Total cattle marketings for July 2007 is estimated at 3,800 head, up 31 percent from July 2006. Cumulative cattle marketings for the first seven months of 2007 totaled 31,700 head, down 3 percent from the same period a year ago.

Exports up 40 percent in July compared to year ago
Exports of steers and heifers totaled 2,800 head in July 2007, up 40 percent from a year ago. Exports of steers totaled 1,400 head during July 2007, up 17 percent compared to a year ago. Total export of heifers also increased in July 2007 compared to a year ago at 1,400 head, a 75 percent increase. Cumulative exports of steers and heifers through July 2007 totaled 25,300 head, down 5 percent from the same period a year ago. Cumulative exports of steers for 2007 stands at 14,700 head, down 5 percent from 2006. Exports of heifers were also down 5 percent for the first seven months of 2007 at 10,600 head. Exports of other classes of cattle were not included.

Average live weight up 2 percent
The average live weight of steers and heifers exported from Hawaii in July 2007 was 428 pounds, up 2 percent from July 2006?s average live weight of 420 pounds.

Cattle and Hogs Commercial Slaughter

Commercial Beef Production Down 4 Percent
Hawaii commercial beef production (local slaughter) during July 2007 totaled 516,000 pounds, down 4 percent from July 2006. Cumulative beef production (local slaughter) through July 2007 totaled 3.7 million pounds, up 5 percent from a year ago. Commercial kill totaled 900 head in July, unchanged from July 2006. Average live weight per head was 1,023 pounds in July 2007, down 4 percent from the average live weight per head in July 2006. Commercial Pork Production Down 10 Percent
Hawaii commercial pork production during July 2007 totaled 291,000 pounds, down 10 percent from July 2006. Cumulative pork production for the first seven months of 2007 totaled 2.0 million pounds, down 10 percent from a year ago. Total hog kill was 1,800 head in July 2007, down 5 percent from a year ago. Average live weight per head was 211 pounds in July 2007, down 9 percent from the 232-pound average a year ago.

Milk Cows and Milk Production

July Milk Production Down 48 Percent From Year Ago
Hawaii?s dairy cows produced 2.6 million pounds of milk in July 2007, down 48 percent from a year ago. Cumulative milk production for the first seven months of 2007 totaled 24.3 million pounds, down 31 percent from the same period in 2006.

July?s Cow Herd Down 37 Percent From Year Ago
Hawaii?s cow herd, both dry and milking, numbered 2,700 head in July 2007, unchanged from June 2007 and down 37 percent from July 2006.

Milk Per Cow Decreases
Average milk per cow is estimated at 1,000 pounds for July 2007, down 14 percent from last July?s average of 1,165 pounds per cow.

Average Farm Prices

Most July Livestock Prices Above Year-ago Averages

Steers and heifers
The average dress weight farm price for steers and heifers is estimated at 99.5 cents per pound for July 2007, up half-a-cent from June and 1.5 cents per pound higher than a year ago.

Cows
The average dress weight farm price for cows is estimated at 55.0 cents per pound in July 2007, unchanged from June. Compared to a year ago, the average dress weight farm price for cows was 3.0 cents per pound higher in July 2007.

Market hogs
The average dress weight farm price for market hogs is estimated at $1.25 per pound for July 2007, 8 cents per pound higher than June 2007. Compared to a year ago, the dressed weight for market hogs was down 5.0 cents per pound this July.

Milk
The average farm price for milk was $29.90 per hundredweight during July 2007, up $2.20 from June 2007. Compared to a year ago, the July 2007 average farm price for milk was $5.00 per hundredweight higher.

Eggs
The average farm price for a dozen eggs was $1.05 in July 2007, up 1 percent from June 2007. Compared to a year ago, the average farm price for a dozen eggs was up 8 percent in July.

U.S. Livestock Roundup

NASS

Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 3.94 billion pounds in July, up 4 percent from the 3.79 billion pounds produced in July 2006.

Beef production, at 2.26 billion pounds, was 2 percent above the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.90 million head, up 2 percent from July 2006. The average live weight was down 4 pounds from the previous year, at 1,269 pounds.

Veal production totaled 10.7 million pounds, 5 percent below July a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 62,600 head, up 8 percent from July 2006. The average live weight was down 36 pounds from last year, at 289 pounds.

Pork production totaled 1.66 billion pounds, up 7 percent from the previous year. Hog kill totaled 8.40 million head, up 7 percent from July 2006. The average live weight was up 1 pound from the previous year, at 264 pounds.

Lamb and mutton production, at 13.5 million pounds, was up 2 percent from July 2006. Sheep slaughter totaled 204,700 head, 1 percent above last year. The average live weight was 131 pounds, up 1 pound from July a year ago.

U.S. egg production totaled 7.57 billion during July 2007, down 1 percent from last year. Production included 6.44 billion table eggs, and 1.14 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.07 billion were broiler-type and 66 million were egg-type. The total number of layers during July 2007 averaged 339 million, down 1 percent from last year. July egg production per 100 layers was 2,234 eggs, down slightly from July 2006.

All layers in the U.S. on August 1, 2007 totaled 340 million, down slightly from last year. The 340 million layers consisted of 281 million layers producing table or market type eggs, 56.2 million layers producing broilertype hatching eggs, and 2.72 million layers producing egg-type hatching eggs. Rate of lay per day on August 1, 2007, averaged 72.1 eggs per 100 layers, up 1 percent from August 1, 2006.

Excerpts from Livestock Slaughter (August 24, 2007) and Chickens and Eggs (August 21, 2007) releases.

ERS – ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE

Cattle/Beef: NASS? Cattle report showed virtually all July 1, 2007 inventories down from July 1, 2006. The report indicates that cattle inventory growth has stalled, at best, or peaked, at worst, for the cattle cycle that first expanded in 2005, up from a cyclical low cattle and calf inventory of 103.6 million head on July 1, 2004 (including a low total cow inventory of 42.4 million head). The last cycle with a short expansion phase occurred during the cycle that began from a low point on January 1, 1979, peaked in 1982 after only 3 years of cattle inventory expansion, and ended at a low point in 1990 after 8 years of liquidation. As a result, beef production could be below 26 billion pounds for 2008 and 2009, which would be slightly below 2007 production, and will depend on average dressed weights and breeding heifer retention.

Hogs and Pork: Third-quarter commercial pork production is expected to be almost 5.3 billion pounds, about 3.2 percent above third quarter last year. Thirdquarter prices of live equivalent 51-52 percent lean hogs are forecast to range between $50 and $52 per hundredweight (cwt). Pork exports in the first half of 2007 were 4 percent lower than a year ago.

Dairy: Global demand for dairy products, especially nonfat dry milk, butter, and whey, will likely keep prices high this year and next despite increased domestic production in 2008.

Poultry: After falling in the first and second quarters, broiler meat production is expected to increase on a year-over-year basis in the second half of 2007. Prices for broiler products are expected to moderate as production increases. Turkey meat production continues to grow, but strong domestic demand and exports have kept stocks low and prices above those of the previous year.

Sheep and Lamb: The USDA Sheep and Goats report released on July 20, 2007 indicated a decline in inventories. On July 1, 2007, the U.S. sheep and lamb inventory totaled 7.73 million head, down slightly from 2006, but still about 1 percent above the July 1, 2004 bottom. Slight inventory reductions were seen in all of the major categories: breeding sheep, market sheep, and replacement lambs. Heavier-than-normal liquidation continues to take place in Texas and New Mexico, the region hit by severe drought in 2006. Despite these declines, the 2007 lamb crop showed year-over-year increases.

Excerpt from Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M- 158/August 20, 2007 Economic Research Service, USDA.